The Challenge of Developing Situational Awareness During Hurricane Disasters—Part One: Determining the What

Emergency management and civil defense agencies are responsible for coordinating response to a disaster. This coordination occurs in a centralized location—the emergency operations center—where information is gathered and analyzed to determine the impact or potential impact of an incident, ascertain resource needs, and establish priorities for assigning resources where they are needed most.

I was engaged in this process while supporting the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management when Hurricane Sandy struck the East Coast of the United States in October 2012. My experience in the State Emergency Operations Center and 2 weeks later in the Joint Field Office working with 2,600 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) staff was consistent with the challenges that every emergency operations center around the world faces when confronted with a dangerous natural disaster: determining the what, the so what, and the what’s next.

Part One: Determining the What!

The State of New Jersey is the most densely populated in the United States, with a population of approximately 9 million people. Much of that population is centered in the urban areas in the northeast part of the state near New York City and coast of the Atlantic Ocean coast. The unmet needs of this large urban area can quickly overwhelm the capability to deliver services.

To coordinate the assistance needed during disasters, a critical function of the emergency operations center is to determine what is occurring, the impact or the consequence of what is occurring (the so what), and the consequence management or the plan to respond (the what’s next). Significant challenges, however, impede the ability to determine these three elements.

Essential Elements of Information

The most immediate challenge is access to data or information. Typically, especially prior to an incident, many sources of data are available; however, they are not always in a centralized location.

1. The first task is to determine where information may be found.
2. Develop essential elements of information. The next challenge is to make sure of access to the right data. When disasters occur, many streams of information can quickly overwhelm a recipient.Think of lots of musical notes played in no particular order: banging fingers on the keyboard of a piano is using notes, but not playing them in an orderly sequence is just noise that provides no pleasure and has no purpose. Playing notes in a particular order using certain notes at certain times creates a meaning and provides the pleasure that we call music. The process of establishing order and pleasure and value in data acquisition is called developing essential elements of information.

   This orderly process of seeking specific data for analysis is the process of turning noise into music. We can tell from our collective experience that certain pieces of information are more important and helpful than others. Our task is to define what those important pieces of information are and then develop a process to ensure we collect them—that is, developing essential elements of information.

On October 22, 2012, the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management began full-time staffing operations in preparation for the potential strike of Hurricane Sandy. The immediate process initiated was to conduct analysis to determine the what, the so what, and the what’s next of the situation. This process of analysis involved examining a variety of information sources to assess the potential impact of the hurricane on New Jersey.

Understand the Threat

Understanding the threat is important when conducting analysis. Hurricanes are among the deadliest and costliest natural disasters. In a list of the top 10 deadliest natural disasters in the world, hurricanes tally two incidents with nearly 800,00 total deaths.[i] In the United States, 6 of the 10 most costly natural disasters were hurricane incidents totaling US$326 billion[ii]

Due to the severity of a hurricane, emergency management and civil defense agencies confront myriad challenges when preparing for and responding to a hurricane strike. Hurricane incidents present three primary methods for death and destruction:

1. Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water above historic and predicted astronomical tides. During Hurricane Ike (2008), the surge moved inland nearly 30 miles in some locations in southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.[iii]
   Hurricane Katrina Storm Surge[iv]

   
   Before Hurricane Katrina (l.); after Hurricane Katrina (r.)

2. High winds. Change in air pressure between intense low-pressure systems associated with hurricane activity creates dangerous high winds. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale rates hurricanes from 1 (less intense sustained wind speed) to 5 (more intense sustained wind speed) and is one means of estimating potential property damage. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Category 1 and 2 storms are still dangerous, however, and require preventative measures.
   
3. Flooding is caused by heavy rains associated with hurricane systems. Rainfall is typically heaviest in proximity to the hurricane center and in advance of the eyewall rather than after its passage. Usually, the heaviest rainfall and the strongest winds are associated in the right front quadrant of a storm.

The cascading effects of these impacts—storm surge, heavy winds, and flooding due to rainfall—create injury and death; collapse structures that can require intense search and rescue efforts; destroy infrastructure and essential services; deprive the populace of power, water, and food supplies; and have an impact on the capabilities of police, firefighting, and emergency medical services. The destruction of homes creates significant mass care considerations regarding providing housing and essential services. And economic impacts such as losses to businesses and the costs of recovery contribute to the reasons explaining why hurricane systems are so devastating.

Author: Jim Weldin, Senior Emergency Planner

These series of articles will discuss the aspect of gaining situational awareness during hurricane disasters. The overall theme is to determine the potential storm impact, the consequence of that impact, and finally utilization of this information to provide recommendations for consequence management.